What happened. Three things Thu Jun 25. (1) Stocks split. Dow +0.1% at 51,920 on financials + energy strength; S&P 500 essentially flat at 7,357 (-0.01%); Nasdaq -0.5% at 25,358 — fourth straight decline. The split came from one supply chain. (2) Micron blew out Q3 ($41.5B revenue +346% YoY — record; $25.11 EPS vs $20.28 consensus; gross margin 84.6% — record; Q4 guide $50B revenue + 86% margin + $30.73 EPS; HBM4 AI-memory in volume production for lead customer, 'fully booked' through calendar 2027). Stock +15% intraday. (3) Apple fell ~6% after raising iPad + MacBook prices to absorb the same memory + storage cost surge Micron is benefiting from. The shortage flows downstream — Apple's BOM (bill of materials) cost per device jumped, and they passed the increase to consumers. (4) PCE inflation for May came in hot — 4.1% YoY headline (highest since April; +0.4% MoM), core PCE 3.4% YoY (+0.3% MoM), both in line with forecasts but firmly above the Fed's 2% target. Fed Chair Warsh's 'rate cuts off the table' from last week looks correct.事件回顾:6/25(周四)三件事。(一)股市分化。道琼斯 +0.1% 至 51,920,金融 + 能源支撑;S&P 500 基本持平至 7,357(-0.01%);纳斯达克 -0.5% 至 25,358——连续第 4 个下跌日。分化来自同一条供应链。(二)美光(Micron)第 3 财季爆款(营收 $415 亿 同比 +346%——创纪录;每股盈利 $25.11 vs 共识 $20.28;毛利率 84.6%——创纪录;第 4 财季指引营收 $500 亿 + 毛利 86% + 每股盈利 $30.73;HBM4 AI 高带宽内存为首批客户量产、2027 日历年前"已全部预订")。股价盘中 +15%。(三)苹果(Apple)-6%——为吸收美光受益的同一内存 + 存储成本飙升而上调 iPad + MacBook 价格。短缺向下游传导——苹果每台设备 BOM(物料清单)成本上升、将涨幅转嫁消费者。(四)5 月 PCE 通胀热——同比 4.1% 头条(4 月以来最高;环比 +0.4%)、核心 PCE 同比 3.4%(环比 +0.3%)、均与预期一致但稳超美联储 2% 目标。美联储主席 Warsh 上周"降息暂搁置"鹰派立场看似正确。
Why this matters for Chinese-American Bellevue families. Four channels. (1) Tech-heavy 401(k) / IRA: if your retirement portfolio is concentrated in MAG7 (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla), this week's pattern — semiconductor names up, consumer-electronics names down on memory-cost pass-through — is the lens for the next 2-3 quarters. The AI-memory shortage benefits MU (Micron), NVDA (Nvidia), AMD; pressures AAPL (Apple), DELL, HPQ. Rebalance toward semis if your advisor agrees. (2) Inflation + grocery prices: PCE at 4.1% means restaurant + grocery prices keep climbing 3-4 months ahead; T&T Bellevue, 99 Ranch, H Mart, Costco — expect continued 5-8% YoY at the receipt level. (3) Mortgage refi: PCE hot + Fed hawkish means 10-yr Treasury yield has limited room to fall further; if you were waiting for a 6% mortgage refi window, that window may close — talk to your lender this week, not in Q3. (4) Apple device buying: if you were planning to buy a new iPad or MacBook this year, do it NOW before further price hikes; this week's action is the FIRST round, not the last.对贝尔维尤华裔家庭的意义:四条渠道。(一)科技重仓 401(k) / IRA:若您退休组合集中在 MAG7(Apple 苹果、Microsoft 微软、Nvidia 英伟达、Alphabet 字母、Amazon 亚马逊、Meta、Tesla 特斯拉),本周模式——半导体股上涨、消费电子股因内存成本转嫁下跌——是未来 2–3 季度的镜头。AI 内存短缺利好 MU 美光、NVDA 英伟达、AMD;压力 AAPL 苹果、DELL、HPQ。若顾问同意,向半导体再平衡。(二)通胀 + 食品价格:PCE 4.1% 意味餐厅 + 杂货价格 3–4 个月内继续上涨;T&T 贝尔维尤、99 Ranch、H Mart、Costco——预期账单层面持续同比 5–8%。(三)房贷再融资:PCE 热 + 美联储鹰派意味 10 年期美国国债收益率进一步下行空间有限;若您一直等 6% 房贷再融资窗口、该窗口可能关闭——本周与贷款经办沟通、勿等第 3 季度。(四)苹果设备购买:若您计划今年买新 iPad 或 MacBook,请现在买——本周宣布的涨价是首轮、非末轮。
What to watch this week. (1) Friday Jun 26 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final 7 AM PT — if sentiment turned south on PCE shock, expect another Mag7 drag Monday. (2) Bond market: 10-yr Treasury yield reaction overnight; if it tests 4.6%, CD rates re-firm and refi window stays open another 2-3 weeks. (3) Next Tue Jul 1 — JOLTS job openings + ISM Manufacturing PMI; both inform the next FOMC's tone. (4) For Bellevue Chinese-American 60+ households with brokerage advisor: this week's clean 'AI memory winners vs consumer-electronics losers' pattern is a natural prompt for the mid-year portfolio check — concentration risk is the lens; Wed Jun 24 Bellevue Chamber's WaFd Bank CEO Beardall warning on WA state tax posture (see prior issue Local #2) layers on top.本周看点:(一)周五 6/26 密歇根大学消费者信心终值 7:00 西部时间——若信心因 PCE 冲击转负,预期周一 Mag7 再拖累。(二)债券市场:10 年期美国国债收益率隔夜反应;若测试 4.6%,CD(定存证)利率再企稳、再融资窗口再延 2–3 周。(三)下周二 7/1——JOLTS 职位空缺 + ISM 制造业 PMI;两者均给下次美联储 FOMC 定调信号。(四)有券商顾问的贝尔维尤华裔 60+ 家庭:本周清晰的"AI 内存赢家 vs 消费电子输家"模式是中期组合检查的自然触点——集中度风险是镜头;周三 6/24 贝尔维尤商会 WaFd 银行 CEO Beardall 关于华州税务架构的警告(见前一期本地新闻 #2)叠加在上。